Desktop Modeling of the Performance , Emissions , and Cost of Gasification Systems 98 - RAA . 02

Gasification systems, such as coal-based integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems for power generation and byproduct recovery, are complex technologies. Process simulators, such as ASPEN, have typically been used to evaluate the performance, emissions, and costs of these technologies. Process simulation models are sufficiently large that they can only be executed on workstations or minicomputers in simulations that may take hours and are often used only once or a few times. To facilitate the incorporation of detailed performance, emissions, and cost data into planning and policy decisions, we have developed a reduced form model (RFM) of an IGCC system using a probabilistic version of the U.S. Department of Energy’s version of ASPEN. Probabilistic simulations generate data sets in which the variation in model outputs can be evaluated with respect to the simultaneous variation in many model inputs. We employed previously developed probabilistic ASPEN models of a fluidized-bed gasifier IGCC system with hot gas cleanup to generate data for RFM development. Using regression anlaysis, a series of simplified equations were developed to enable prediction of 60 ASPEN model outputs based upon linear combinations of up to 12 user-specified input assumptions. The regression models were implemented with a FORTRAN-based capital, operating, and levelized cost model to enable simultaneous prediction of the performance, emissions, and cost of this complex technology using desktop computers. The desktop model operates quickly, and allows users to evaluate the effects of alternative assumptions regarding process performance and cost while retaining much of the rigor of the more detailed workstation simulation model. The additional uncertainty introduced due to the simplification of the model was evaluated based upon the goodness-of-fit of the regression models.